Anybyte

Space X Starship Booster Optimus
Generation also known as Version or Block
Timeline will depends on number of improvements/tests.
Flt#01 04/20/23 S24/B07 - 7 months -
Flt#02 11/18/23 S25/B09 - 4 months -
Flt#03 03/14/24 S28/B10 - 3 months -
Flt#04 06/06/24 S29/B11 - 4 months -
Flt#05 10/13/24 S30/B12 - 1 month - B12 Catch
Flt#06 11/19/24 S31/B13 - 2 months -
Flt#07 01/17/25 S33/B14 - 1 months - B14 Catch
Flt#08 03/06/25 S34/B15 - 2 months - B15 Catch
Flt#09 05/27/25 S35/B14 -
Flt#10 08/04/25 S37 Elon posts on X approx. date.
Possible Jerry-rigged Pad A to test Starship.
Starship adapter installed, static fire (S37 active)Raptor Eng Gen 2 - testing Gen 3 not implemented
Optimus Gen 2 - testing Gen 3 hand
Starship 6 engines Gen 1 <S31 Gen 2 <S38 Gen 3
Booster 33 engines Gen 1
LB Jill - Starship/Booster salvage barge (B13 aft)
Pad A - TX launch/deluge operational
Pad B - TX launch/trench under construction
Pad 39A - FL launch/trench under construction
Massey Pad - TX test/trench under construction
after S36 Pad may be upgrading to Gen 3 Starship
Massey Site - Cryo proof operational (S38 active)Space X/Tesla will still need a Starlink relay network to extend communication between Earth/Moon/Mars for effective operation of Optimus to test Starship flight to the moon/mars, unless both operate autonomously. Otherwise, the bandwidth will be limited.
05/27/25 As Starship gets larger, Dragon Ship could be used as a shuttle craft which uses less fuel for taking off/landing and is already designed with thruster capability. The largest Starships will never need to land (outer repairs will be made by Optimus).

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07/23/25 The level of Grok integration into Tesla will define how smart and capable your products will be in the future. The distinguishing factor is that Grok is communicable vocally (FSD eyes/legs). This would enable Tesla vehicles the ability to communicate with people outside the car using AI (future cars will require a mic on the outside). Examples: A person in a parking lot wants to cross in front of your car and Grok says "go ahead", communicating with police, and Robotaxi asking customers name before letting them in. (Tesla vehicles will soon have Grok app, no integration yet)
11/30/24 FSD 13 release is a substantial improvement to version 12. Estimating unsupervised driving capability in 2025, mainly due to the rate of progress.
01/30/25 AI3/HW3 will require an upgrade for future full FSD functionality. The advantage is fewer versions of FSD. Compressing FSD to a lesser or equal version can be challenging. Elon indicates possible June 2025 robotaxi introduction.AI4/HW4 V13.2, V13.2.1, V13.2.2, V13.2.2.1, V13.2.4, V13.2.5, V13.2.5.1, V13.2.6, V13.2.7, V13.2.8, V13.2.9
AI3/HW3 V12.6, V12.6.1, V12.6.2, V12.6.3, V12.6.4Tesla Deliveries
…..…..04/02…07/02….10/02…..01/02
2022 Q1 310 Q2 254 Q3 343 Q4 405
2023 Q1 422 Q2 466 Q3 435 Q4 485
2024 Q1 387 Q2 444 Q3 463 Q4 495
2025 Q1 336 Q2 384Tesla Earnings Call
2023 Q1 04/19 Q2 07/19 Q3 10/18 Q4 01/24
2024
Q1 04/23 Robotaxi clarification, affordable cars
Q2 07/23 $246>$227 AH. Robotaxi 10/10/24
Q3 10/23 $213>$239 AH affordable car/Margins
Q4 01/29 Tesla energy/AI influence
2025
Q1 04/22 Avoidance of future tarrifs
Q2 07/23 Robotaxi intro, Optimus Gen 3
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TSLA Split
08/31/20 5<1 $442<$2210
08/25/22 3<1 $288<$864
Tesla Ownership
Elon 13% goal 25% avoid takeover
06/13/24 approve incorporate DW->TX/56B pay pkg
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FSD
10/2014 HW1 Mobileye, 10/2015 HW1 FSD 7.011/2016 HW2 FSD 8.0, 10/2018 HW2.5 FSD 9.009/2019 HW3 FSD 10.0, 03/2023 HW4 FSD 11.011.4.4, 11.4.6,11.4.7, 11.4.7.2, 11.4.7.3, 11.4.8.1, 11.4.903/2024 HW4 FSD 12.0 (99% AI)12.1.2, 12.2.1, 12.3, 12.3.3, 12.3.4, 12.3.512.3.6, 12.4, 12.4.1, 12.4.2, 12.4.3, 12.5, 12.5.1 , 12.5.1.1, 12.5.1.2, 12.5.1.3, 12.5.4,12.5.4.1, 13.2
If it was hard coded, it would be extremely difficult and time consuming. Due to the AI platform (end to end neural net) teaching FSD comes faster with more complicated maneuvers possible. Partial release should be soon. No longer compute constrained (NVDA). Rapid releases compared to older versions
08/08/24 (possible delay until October) Robotaxi unveil. Possible demonstration include new software or hardware. It could be a combination of both. Example Robotaxi app
04/28/24 Elon gets preliminary approval of FSD in China.
10/10/24 Robotaxi event to be held at Warner Brothers Studio. (Optimus bartender or coffee barista?)
Unknown if people will be able to try the app and ride around the premises (without going onto public roads). Hopefully, they will have enough prototypes so it doesn’t get too crazy. My guess is at least 4.
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Space X/Starship
(Obstacles EPA,FAA, OSHA, Environmentalists)
04/20/23 SN24/B07 Launch, Self Destruct
11/18/23 SN25/B09 Launch, Self Destruct
(Starship separation + altitude climb)
03/14/24 SN28/B10 Launch, separation, re-entry
(massive knowledge gain: B10 functionality, SN28 heat/communication tolerance, payload door tested, overall reliability improvements, no ocean landing)
06/18/24??SN29/B11?? Launch with high probability for repeat of soft ocean landing. Chopsticks catch is highly unlikely. Retesting payload door, relighting of raptor engines, higher orbit?, etc. Date of next launch depends on the number of new modifications and how long data analysis takes. Last gap was about 4 months, hopefully this time its less.
06/06/24 SN29/B11 High level of success.
No scrub/hold, flight test turnaround has quickened, improvements on heat shield and raptor engine reliability, SN29/B11 descent control improvements, deluge minimizing damage continues, more camera viewpoints and continued durability, FAA streamlining Space X certification process, SN29 altitude reaches 200 km, large amount of data collected for future improvements. Prototype hot stage was jettisoned, will eventually be replace by a permanent version.
Possible chopsticks catch of Booster on next flight?
06/10/24 SN/B Test flight #5. Move flaps to a more strategic location and new heat tiles to lessen SN ‘s beating through the atmosphere, continue to strengthen launch area to heat and blast concussion, recalibrate to optimize soft landing of both SN/B (using data from Flt#4). Take preventive measures to minimize damage from B catch. As Space X continues to make modifications and improvements, we get closer to reusability and faster turnaround on launches.
10/13/24 Congratulations Space X!
10/08/24 Launch window 10/12-19/24? Chopsticks have been weight tested for Booster, high level of success judging by modifications. Unknown, if Starship will repeat previous test or add more.
09/27/24 Starship is ready to fly but unnecessary delay in progress. (S30/B12)
Knowledge gained: Starship/Booster maneuverability, raptor engine tolerances, pressure limits, etc
10/13/24 Highly successful launch of S30/B12, heat shield durability improvements (different configurations tested), S/B more controlled/precise soft landings, length of Chopsticks tested due to Booster’s angle/orientation of landing, camera signal improved, consistency needs to be tested, some minor anomalies need to be corrected in Flt# 6.
Iterations (other labels Block, Version)

11/19/24 Starship to retest heat shield, re-catch Booster, possible relight Starship raptor engine in space (<-success) and hot staging ring will be jettisoned.
10/23/24 S31/B13 Next flight #6 has low probability of catching Starship. 2nd tower needs to be completed or Starship needs to orbit the earth so Booster can be removed (unless landing gear is installed on S31). Re-catching Booster and catching Starship is vital to the path to reusability.
11/21/24 flt# 6 demonstrated reliability/improvements over previous performances. Due to time constraints (moon/mars), after the anomaly (catch tower) canceled B13 catch, it’s faster to launch again than risk damage to launch point.
01/15/25 4PM CST Flt# 7 B14 will repeat B12 catch/jettison hot staging ring and S33 heat shield test/ocean landing. S33 should have repositioned wings for optimal performance. Unknown, if Raptor engine will attempt another relight in space (12/17/24 single raptor engine static fire).
01/06/25 Possible payload test (dummy satellites) and one B12 raptor engine Pi314 will be reused on B14.
01/17/25 Booster 14 catch successful. 2nd Generation Starship 33 with a multitude of modifications burned up in atmosphere. Unknown how much data was acquired before communication blackout.
03/09/25 3 successful catches moves Space X closer from experimental to standardized. 2nd Gen Starship possibly has a design flaw (leak/pressure issues) which can’t easily be fixed with a patch. Regardless, the speed of implementation won’t take them long to correct the problem.
01/19/25 Flt#8 Elon indicates will remedy Flt#7 leak. Possibly replicating Flt#7 -> Flt#8 Starship tests. Dummy satellites deployment, relight engine in space, heat shield test/ocean landing.
02/18/25 Accelerated construction on Pad B with Chopsticks installed. Guessing Elon would like to catch both Booster and Starship on Flt#9.
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Blue Origin - New Glenn
Flt#1 01/16/25 GS1/GS2 - payload to orbit -
Flt#2 4th quarter 2025 NASA Escapade payload1st Stage Booster GS1 (reusable) - BE4 7 engines
2nd Stage GS2 (non-reusable) - E3U 2 engines - fairings
Jacklyn - Landing Barge
Blue Moon Mk1 BE7 1 engine cargo lunar lander
Blue Moon Mk2 BE7 3 engines 4 passenger lunar lander07/25/25 Will Blue Origin beat Space X to the moon?
01/16/25 High success level for Blue Origin’s 1st New Glenn launch. Blue Ring Pathfinder payload reaches orbit and Booster relights engines for landing.
Possible reason for Booster unsuccessful landing may be due to atmospheric stresses. New Shepard has lower altitude. Rocket science is hard and reusability even harder.
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Optimus/AI
08/19/21 AI Day Elon reveals plans for Optimus
09/30/22 AI Day 1st Gen Optimus demo(1st look)
05/16/23 YT 1st Gen Optimus demo.
09/23/23 X 1st Gen Optimus demo(cubes)
12/12/23 X 2nd Gen Optimus demo.
02/24/24 X Optimus faster/stable mobility.
05/05/24 X factory demo functionality
10/17/24 X improved navigation ,stability, gesture recognition, obstacle avoidance/climbing
11/28/24 X Optimus 3rd Gen hand being tested
01/29/25 Q4 Ramping up units and factory integration in 2025.
07/09/25 X Grok 4 integration into Optimus/Tesla vehicles
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2028 Clean Slate
Dems
Now that Biden/Harris (+baggage) is out of the way, the Dems new candidates won’t have Trump/DEI Harris as obstacles to contend with. It also decreases a possible 8yr run for Reps due Harris’s poor leadership.
Reps
To find a candidate that will win in 2028. Trump’s plan is for JD to win candidacy.
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Presidents
2029 ??? Analysis, factors, strategies
4y R Donald Trump/JD Vance 25-29
4y D Joe Biden/Kamala Harris 21-25
4y R Donald Trump/Mike Pence 17-21
8y D Barack Obama/Joe Biden 09-17
8y R George W. Bush/Dick Cheney 01-09
4y D Bill Clinton/Al Gore 93-01
4y R George H.W. Bush/Dan Quayle 89-93
8y R Ronald Reagan/George H.W. Bush 81-89
4y D Jimmy Carter/Walter Mondale 77-81
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Federal Reserve Chair (Jerome Powell)
07/26/23 interest rate hike 0.25->5.5% highest 22yrs
09/18/24 cuts interest rate .50 to 5.0
11/07/24 cuts interest rate .25 to 4.75
12/18/24 cuts interest rate .25 to 4.5
(Inflation 2.75%^, Unemployment 4.2%)
03/19/25 no change
04/04/25 no Trump cuts
(Inflation 3.1%v, Unemployment 4.2%).

TSLA Price Target
(not updated since May 2024)
$2000+ (2028) ARK Cathie Wood (2)
$316 Argus Research Bill Selesky
$310 Morgan Stanley Adam Jones(4+)
$293 RBC Capital Tom Narayan (4)
$275 Webbush Daniel Ives (5)
$222 Canaccord Genuity George Gianarikas
$220 B Of A Securities John Murphy
$210 Morningstar(3)
$205 Piper Sandler Alexander Potter
$181<—————05/03/24
$180 Mizuho Securities Vjay Rakesh
$180 Barclay
$182 Citi Group Italy Michaeli(0)
$180 Daiwa Capital Markets Jairam Nathan
$175 Goldman Sachs Mark Delaney
$168 ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^04/26/24
$165 Jefferies Financial Group
$162 Truist Securities Financial
$147 UBS
$126 Guggenheim Ronald Jewsikow
$123 Deutsche Bank
$120 HSBC
$120 Wells Fargo
$120 Bernstein Toni Sacconaghi(4)
$115 JP Morgan Ryan Brinkman(1)
$85 Roth Capital Craig Irwin(4*)
$23.53 GLJ Research Gordon Johnson
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Storms 2024
06/19/24 Tropical Storm Alberto->S. TX floods
06/30/24 Beryl cat5>4 Caribbean Islands>1 TX
08/05/24 Debby cat1 Florida
09/11/24 Hurricane Francine Louisiana cat1
09/26/24 Hurricane Helene cat4 FL, East C
10/09/24 Hurricane Milton cat3 FL
Storms 2023
06/02/23 Tropical Arlene
08/21/23 Hurricane Hilary cat4
08/30/23 Hurricane Idalia cat3
09/01/23 Las Vegas flood storm
09/02/23 Burning Man NV mud Storm
09/13/23 Tropical Lee cat1
09/23/23 Tropical Storm Ophelia NC, VA, etc
10/07/23 Topical Storm Philippe NY, NE
12/11/23 East Coast Storm (entire US East)
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